DeSart model: Clinton in Oklahoma trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will receive 30.0% of the two-party vote share in Oklahoma, while Trump will end up with 70.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 63.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma. This value is 6.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma, which is 7.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 23.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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