DeSart model: Clinton with clear lead in New Jersey

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 56.9% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, while Trump will win 43.2%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect only 43.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New Jersey econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 57.3%. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.5% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 3.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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