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DeSart model: Trump with clear lead in Montana


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 40.2% for Clinton and 59.8% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Montana econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.2%. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 2.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 12.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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