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DeSart model: Trump with clear lead in Mississippi


The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will receive 41.4% of the two-party vote share in Mississippi, while Trump will end up with 58.6%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win 58.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Mississippi has Trump at 56.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.7% in Mississippi. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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