Maryland: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 61.4% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, whereas Trump will win 38.6%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect only 38.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Maryland has Clinton at 61.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland, which is 3.3 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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