The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.1% for Clinton and 57.9% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain 57.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Indiana econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points lower.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Indiana, which is 2.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.9 percentage points higher.