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DeSart model in Indiana: Trump with clear lead


The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.1% for Clinton and 57.9% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain 57.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Indiana econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Indiana, which is 2.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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