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DeSart model in Illinois: Clinton with comfortable lead


The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump in Illinois. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect only 46.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 54.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 4.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.6% in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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