The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump in Illinois. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect only 46.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 54.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 4.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.6% in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.6 percentage points higher.