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DeSart model in Idaho: Trump with very clear lead

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The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.4% for Clinton and 69.6% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 68.7%. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.9% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 22.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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