Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 29.9%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain only 29.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.0 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.8% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 2.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 17.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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