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DeSart model: Trump with small lead in Florida


The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton and 52.1% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically gained similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is considered important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Florida sees Trump at 50.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 2.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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