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DeSart model in California: Clinton is in the lead


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 59.9% for Clinton and 40.1% for Trump in California. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in California sees Clinton at 56.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.0% in California. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 6.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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