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DeSart model: Clinton in Arkansas trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 34.8% for Clinton and 65.2% for Trump in Arkansas. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arkansas has Trump at 58.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Arkansas, which is 8.1 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 18.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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