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DeSart model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead


The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 42.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 57.3%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.1 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 3.3 percentage points less and Trump has 3.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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