Alaska: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.9% for Clinton and 60.1% for Trump in Alaska. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Alaska econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 64.6%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 4.5 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 13.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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