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DeSart model in Alabama: Trump with very clear lead

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The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.8% for Clinton and 64.2% for Trump in Alabama. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Alabama has Trump at 59.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 60.2% of the two-party vote in Alabama, which is 4.0 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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