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DeSart model: Trump in Vermont trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 66.5% for Clinton and 33.5% for Trump in Vermont. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 60.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Vermont. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.1% in Vermont. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 13.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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