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DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead in New York

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The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 62.4% for Clinton and 37.6% for Trump in New York. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New York has Clinton at 60.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 60.1% of the two-party vote in New York, which is 2.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 9.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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