DeSart model: Clinton with small lead in Michigan

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 53.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Michigan. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.4% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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