DeSart model in Washington: Clinton with clear lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump in Washington. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Washington has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Washington. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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