DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will receive 57.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 42.7%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 89.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 31.8 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 24.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 81.7%. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 4.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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