The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 36.7% of the two-party vote share in Tennessee, whereas Trump will win 63.3%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win 63.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Tennessee sees Trump at 57.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 6.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.4% in Tennessee. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.3 percentage points higher.