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DeSart model: Clinton in Tennessee trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 36.7% of the two-party vote share in Tennessee, whereas Trump will win 63.3%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win 63.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Tennessee sees Trump at 57.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 6.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.4% in Tennessee. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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