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Jerome model in Delaware: Clinton with comfortable lead

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The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Delaware, whereas Trump will win 46.5%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Delaware econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.4%. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 11.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 65.1% in Delaware. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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