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Connecticut: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 56.6% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, whereas Trump will end up with 43.4%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Connecticut econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.5% in Connecticut. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 3.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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