Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Colorado

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump in Colorado. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 46.3% of the vote.

In Colorado, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 52.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Colorado. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Colorado. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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