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Jerome model: Clinton in Arkansas trails by a small margin

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The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will win 51.9%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to achieve 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 58.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arkansas. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Arkansas, which is 5.2 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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