The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will end up with 57.2%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 57.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Arizona sees Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.4 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.2 percentage points higher.