Jerome model in Arizona: Trump with clear lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will end up with 57.2%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 57.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arizona sees Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.4 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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