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Jerome model in Alaska: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.9% for Clinton and 69.1% for Trump in Alaska. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Alaska sees Trump at 64.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 22.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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