Primary model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Primary model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will receive 47.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 52.5%. In comparison, on August 9 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they can include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.3 percentage points.

The Primary model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 5.4 percentage points less and Trump has 5.4 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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