The Primary model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will receive 47.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 52.5%. In comparison, on August 9 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they can include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.3 percentage points.
The Primary model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 5.4 percentage points less and Trump has 5.4 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.