Leading indicators model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Leading indicators model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.0%. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 48.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.2 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 0.9 percentage points less and Trump has 0.9 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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