Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Keys to the White House index model

The Keys to the White House model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to collect only 48.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.3 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 1.4 percentage points less and Trump has 1.4 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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