The Keys to the White House model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to collect only 48.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.3 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 1.4 percentage points less and Trump has 1.4 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.