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Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new Electoral-cycle model


The Electoral-cycle model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.2 percentage points.

The Electoral-cycle model compared with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 4.3 percentage points less and Trump has 4.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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