The Jérôme & Jérôme model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate obtaining 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on August 9 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may include large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.3 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 2.8 percentage points less and Trump has 2.8 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.