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Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin

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The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. In comparison, on August 9 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual index model. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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