Issue-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin

The Issue-index model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 55.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 44.6%. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 44.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.6 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 2.5 percentage points more and Trump has 2.5 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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