Issue-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin
The Issue-index model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 55.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 44.6%. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 44.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.6 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 2.5 percentage points more and Trump has 2.5 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.