Fiscal model model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Fiscal model model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.8%. In comparison, on August 9 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 4.7 percentage points less and Trump has 4.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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