Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 56.0%. In comparison, on August 9 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 4.8 percentage points, while Trump did better with 4.8 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 8.9 percentage points less and Trump has 8.9 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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