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Latest Big-issue index model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck


The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to collect only 48.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual index model. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.7 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.7 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 1.8 percentage points less and Trump has 1.8 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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