Clinton leads, according to today’s PollyVote forecast

In the latest update, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will gain 52.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.1% for Trump. Considering previous election years, this is the worst result for the Democrats from PollyVote's forecasts since 2008 democrat candidate Barack Obama and republican candidate John McCain were in the running.

This is what Polly's component methods say

There is a consensus currently dominating the four available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 55.2% of the vote.

Trump lost 8.5 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous week, no other component has shown a shift this large.

In comparison to the predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably low with 51.7% in expectation polls. Since 2004 George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, expectation polls expected a vote share of 50.3% for Democratic candidate John Kerry, in the end he reached 48.8%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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