The Time-for-change model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.2 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
Clinton has 4.3 percentage points less and Trump has 4.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.