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Latest Time-for-change model: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat


The Time-for-change model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.2 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 4.3 percentage points less and Trump has 4.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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