Bio-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Bio-index model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 58.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 41.2%. In comparison, on August 9, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 41.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 5.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 5.0 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 5.9 percentage points more and Trump has 5.9 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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