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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 52.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.8%. In comparison, on August 9 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.4 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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