The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 52.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.8%. In comparison, on August 9 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.4 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.