DeSart model in Virginia: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 50.5% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will win 0.0%.

In Virginia, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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