Jerome model: Trump in New Hampshire trails by a very clear margin

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in New Hampshire.

In New Hampshire, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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