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DeSart model in Florida: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Florida.

Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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