The combined PollyVote today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump.
What Polly's components predict
There is a consensus currently dominating the four available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton. With a vote share of 54.8% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 7.8 percentage points.
With 51.7% in Citizen forecasts the vote share for the Democrats is quite low when compared to previous election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, Citizen forecasts expected a vote share of 50.3% for Democratic candidate John Kerry, in the end he reached 48.8%.