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Virginia: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new DeSart model


The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump in Virginia.

Virginia is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Virginia sees Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 0.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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