The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump in Virginia.
Virginia is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Virginia sees Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 0.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model.