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Virginia: Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Rothschild model


The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 49.0% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will win 51.0%.

Historically, Virginia has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 2.1 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 2.1 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 2.2 percentage points less and Trump has 2.2 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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