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Virginia: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new DeSart model


The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 49.5% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will end up with 50.5%.

In Virginia, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 2.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 2.6 percentage points.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 1.7 percentage points less and Trump has 1.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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