The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.0% for Clinton and 51.0% for Trump in Virginia.
Virginia is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Virginia has Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 1.2 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model.