Rothschild model: Trump with small lead in Pennsylvania

The Rothschild model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton and 52.0% for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 48.1%. Relative to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 3.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 46.6% in Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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